UDC 539.3
The urgent problem of monitoring changes in forest burnability in different regions of the world in order to support management decision-making is the identification of factors, accounting for which provides satisfactory efficiency of their modeling and forecasting. It is known that the main factors of forest burnability in any area include hydrothermal factors - inter-annual changes in average monthly air temperatures and monthly sums of precipitation during the months of the fire-dangerous season. Nevertheless, a quantitative assessment of the relative contributions of these factors to the current variability of the number of forest fires and the average area of plots covered by fire in one fire for the territories of the whole Russia, as well as its Federal Districts belonging to the forest landscape zone, has not been previously carried out. The purpose of this article is to determine such estimates for the period 2000 - 2023, as well as to identify the possibilities of predicting the burnability of the studied forests based on the results of monitoring of these hydrothermal factors obtained in the first half of the fire season. To achieve this goal, the modeling of changes in the indicated characteristics of forest burnability for all the studied areas was carried out, taking into account the dynamics of the considered hydrothermal factors alone. The obtained results were compared with the actual changes in the studied characteristics, which allowed us to determine the relative contributions of the studied factors to the changes in the burnability of Russia's forests in the XXI century. For all Federal Districts under consideration, the effectiveness of forecasting of forest burning for the current year was assessed, taking into account the results of monitoring of the studied factors for the first half of its fire-hazardous season
forest burning, hydrothermal factors, russia, federal districts of russia, relative contributions, modeling, multiple regression
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