UDC 502.45
The average monthly air temperatures over various parts of Siberia and the waters of its seas are among the most important indicators of their thermal regime, which largely determines the risks caused by the occurrence of certain natural hazards. Therefore, the improvement of methods for predicting their interannual changes is an urgent problem not only in meteorology and climatology, but also in emergency safety. One of the effective approaches to solving this problem is to identify areas where some factors of interannual variations in their thermal regime are significant for any given month. For many areas of Siberia, the factors of interannual variability of the studied indicators corresponding to the months of the fire season include variations in the average surface temperatures of the areas of the seas off its shores. In the months when high water begins in the mouths of Siberian rivers flowing into the mentioned seas, the surface temperatures of many areas of their estuarine shores are determined by the monthly volumes and average flow temperatures of such rivers. The interannual changes in these indicators are due to interannual variations not only in the hydrothermal regime of the territories of their catchment areas for the winter and spring months, but also in the state of the forests located on them. In the forest affected by the fire, the snow cover comes off earlier, and the forest floor warms up faster, which leads to an increase in the average temperature of the surface runoff formed here. Consequently, an increase in the burning rate of forests in the catchment area of a certain river, which occurred in the previous year, can lead to an increase in the amount of heat delivered by its waters to the corresponding sea at the beginning of the current year's flood, as well as an increase in surface temperatures of its estuarine coastal areas at this time. Significant parts of the drainage basins of Siberian rivers flowing into the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea are located on the territory of Yakutia. Taking this into account, a hypothesis has been put forward about the existence of areas in Siberia and the waters of its seas where the interannual changes in average monthly air temperatures for the months of the fire season are significantly associated with variations in forest burning rates in Yakutia that are 1 year ahead of them. It has been established that the hypothesis put forward is valid for many areas of the Russian Arctic zone, as well as areas of the water areas of the corresponding seas. Such sites predominate on the territory of Yakutia and the Krasnoyarsk Territory. The total area of such plots is maximum for May. Therefore, landscape fires in Yakutia are a significant risk factor for natural hazards in the Arctic zone of Siberia
sibir', yakutiya, srednemesyachnye temperatury vozduha, kolichestvo landshaftnyh pozharov, ploschad' proydennaya ognem za god, svyazi
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