UDC 614.849
The article discusses the procedure for determining the probability of occurrence of a particular state of a forest area; in particular, the state is fires of the greatest interest. Forecasting is based on the analysis of statistical data on the considered section of the forest territory. The influence of neighboring sites on the probability of fire in the studied area is considered as one of the factors. The assessment of the influence of the bordering areas is formed based on the analysis of the state of neighboring areas and the prevailing wind direction
the probability of occurrence of a fire source, the probability of influence, the normalized value of factor indicators, the method of factor analysis, graph systems
1. Shirouhov A.V., Moroz N.A. Prognozirovanie processa vozniknoveniya ochagov vozgoraniya na uchastkah territorii. // Kompleksnye problemy tehnosfernoy bezopasnosti: materialy XVII MNPK/ FGBOU VO Voronezhskiy GTU.2021. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/PEDDTC
2. Filipenko V.A., Zotov A.V. Prognozirovanie ploschadi lesnogo pozhara s pomosch'yu mashinnogo obucheniya. // Bezopasnost' tehnogennyh i prirodnyh sistem: nauch. zhurnal. 2019. No3.
3. Kulik V., Lobanov S.V. Gidrologicheskiy prognoz lesnyh pozharov i ih predotvraschenie. // Ekologicheskiy vestnik Primor'ya. 2002.
4. Shirouhov A.V. Opredelenie ob'ema goryuchego materiala na uchastke lesnogo massiva pri postroenii veroyatnostnoy modeli vozniknoveniya ochaga vozgoraniya. // Monitoring, modelirovanie i prognozirovanie opasnyh prirodnyh yavleniy i chrezvychaynyh situaciy: materialy X VNPK / FGBOU VO Sibirskaya PSA GPS MChS Rossii.2020. S.74-79. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/GYDFMS
5. Shirouhov A.V., Ivanov K.S. Ocenka vliyaniya antropogennogo faktora lesnogo massiva na veroyatnost' vozniknoveniya ochaga pozhara. // Servis bezopasnosti v Rossii: opyt, problemy, perspektivy. Monitoring, predotvraschenie i likvidaciya chrezvychaynyh situaciy prirodnogo i tehnogennogo haraktera: materialy MNPK/ SPb UGPS MChS Rossii.2021. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/TFFNEE
6. Taylor, S.W. Alexander, M.E. Science, technology, and human factors in fire danger rating. // The Canadian experience.Int. J. Wildland Fire 2006, 15, 121-135. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1071/WF05021
7. Ventcel' E.S. Teoriya veroyatnostey: uchebnik/ E.S. Ventcel', - 11-e izd., ster. - M.: KNORUS, 2010. - 664 s.
8. Y. Xie, Minggang Peng Forest fire forecasting using ensemble learning approaches.// Neural Computing and Applications, Computer Science.2018. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-018-3515-0
9. A. Nebot Forest Fire Forecasting Using Fuzzy Logic Models.// Forests 12(8) July 2021. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/f12081005
10. Alekseev V.E., Zaharova D.V. Teoriya grafov: uchebnoe posobie NGU im. Lobachevskogo. 2017. 119 s.
